Monday, January 4, 2010
Beyond 2009: The Butterfly Effect of National Security
Yet the happenings have not left the topic barren. With lots of butterflies flapping their wings, we do not know when the category five may land upon us. While wishing our community a prosperous and joyful new year for 2010, this is an effort to look at the odds.
TNA Factor:
After the demise of Pussycats as a militia, the spotlight shone upon their political twin TNA, undoubtedly. Presidential Election extended this scenario. Both candidates have played Santa-Claus for TNA votes. And at least some of the official agreements contain segments that seem to threaten national security. Even if they turn out to be usual empty promises of Presidential Election, the General Election to be held immediately after, makes the promises more real. TNA will use their seats for bargaining.
However, TNA is set to prove that they're a synthetic alliance created in front of smoking AK 47 and they may fall apart into pieces.If this happens there will inevitably be lots and lots of active parties in Northern political arena, none gaining a majority of any kind. They'd sell their votes/seats at the best price they get for their variants of the same old demands. It may not be as rosy as it looks. Instead of one big federalist element there will be many little ones, and they may infest both sides during GE.
Nevertheless the diminishing of this biggest racist political movement in SL will be a welcome change. We need to move forward from elements of racism and make room for more generous and broad thinking political movements that represent one SL. Importantly, breaking up of TNA would make room for them to groom, if any.
That fallen Baton:
If such broad thinking non-racist movements fail to capitalize on TNA break up, it may make way for new Tamil militia. If TNA fails to represent Northern people, is there a political capacity in the rest to lead them? UNP is not in a position for any serious political discussion instead of providing political jokes. JVP who hinted as a good national level party, seems loosing whatever they had in the Southern regions as well. This leaves Northern Tamils with only option of SLFP, in the lack/break of TNA.
SLFP provides a hope right now. It already has some people such as Karuna [who may not be most preferred by them, but still a better choice than some unknown SLFP organizer]. I am predicting the possibility of some pussycat leaders appearing in SLFP lists in future. SLFP will provide a good non-racist political alternative for the Northern people, for few years.
But it is not enough. It needs a similar opposition as SLFP is the likely party in power. Lack of that may give opportunity for a new militia. This threat is quite high for next decade or so.
Until we have a certain picture on the Northern vote bases, and the direction of its flow, we need to pre-empt this possibility. It is a time to compare the golden years of late 2000s, in search of answers to what mistakes we did in late 70s and early 80s. How to use our military to diminish a movement in formation - that is the question for the defence establishments.
Pussycat-ospora, anger, revenge and hatred:
Anger and revenge was primarily the backbone of the whole havoc caused in SL by Tamil diaspora. More than Eelam they wanted to give us the biggest return, maybe hurt for the savage 1983, or maybe due to the superiority complex most of them seem to suffer from. And it ended up being a totally lost gamble, a huge waste of time and money of a million plus group of people. More anger has made them wanting to return to the same traits and give us a bigger blow. And they still have financial power to do so.
This is one more reason why a militia can be formed even in the death of the pussycat. If not for any other reason, diaspora cash-cow could be the prime reason for someone to create a fake "rebellion" against us. However, this seems to be an area which current defence/diplomatic establishments are tackling pretty well. We need to intense the acts. We should not rest until last active pussycat is behind bars.
Other side of the Pussycat-ospora:
While one part of them trying to give us the best blood bath possible, the other part is plotting the best political structure to make room for Eelam. The Trans- Notional Government and the corresponding elections are one segment of it. The minority forum held in Switzerland for all minority parties, is another. This alliance is highly supported by the INGOs, and many other foreign elements. Most of war crimes claims, and the defamation of SL are parts of this main plot.
Idea is to create a hostile environment for SL, and leave most minds ready to accept Eelam, should there be the slightest chance for it being declared. Also to push the GOSL to maximum in case there is some kind of negotiation.
Regrettably many local politicians including General Fonseka lately, have fallen into this plot. More dangerous will be if General looses campaign and finds life in Sri Lanka meaningless and flees to west looking for ways to revenge Rajapakses.
This is not an empty threat or a laugh-stock. In 90s when Wardharajah Perumal declared the N/E province as Eelam, [illegally] he lacked any formal acceptance from any part of the world. This was despite his capacity as the Chief Minister with [full] power of 13th amendment [although none gave him self-determination]. It would have given him good acceptance, had the world got prepared for the idea. Today's laid out foundations are for a future Wardharajah.
This is where we need to bring strong legal grounds to combat separatism. After 30years of separatist war SL is still entertaining the thinking, talking and organizing of separation. It can only combat separation by means of anti-terrorism. Separatists to date, foolishly took the same and hence got decimated. Yet we have no weapons to combat the peaceful version of separatism.This is a loophole we need to close soon, or the result will be regretful.
IDP turned Mentally Displaced:
IDPs are being settled. With them the multi million dollar topic [of NGOs] is gone. Yet the settling process looks hasty and a rash plan. Perhaps pushed into it by many such parties.
It is very important to handle them sensibly and delicately. More than the infrastructure and underlying needs, most of these people are mentally displaced, still so.
And that leaves all possibilities open. Most these people suffered in many hands, yet they may take it all from the GOSL. They may find their current lives not so filling and, in the slightest mistake, abandoned. Instead of working for their own future cum country's, they may work for country's destruction and eventually theirs.
In simple words the release was too early and primitive. In other words we need to make sure every plan we have to counter any bad formations among them, since they are very likely.
For racist politicians, for diaspora and INGOs, this bulk of ppl [together with other tamils in those regions] are the work horse. Every evil plot of the prior groups are made real by them. And for that reason they would invest their best to get these ppl lined up for their plans. Slightest mistake will be definitely highlighted in the process.
Govt should provide them all the needs and help them to get on with life and prosper. So far it looks good going. Yet the goals are still a significant distance away.
Not only the caretaking but also they should be monitored and closely spied. There is nothing wrong in spying. Today most western countries listen to Muslim circles day and night. We can do the same with them.
Mono-ethnic Enclaves, and unfair and preventive laws from Integration:
This is a topic discussed by likes of Moshe in many rounds. Needless to add, Multi-ethnic recolonization as our pals coined it, is an essence. Not only that the vast reserves of Wanni needs more people and it should be equally available for all Sri Lankans. Any laws violating that right should be removed, and challenged by means of basic rights.
As Moshe states, this is the best way to end racism. Yet they're late. This should have begun in parallel to IDP resettlement. Still never too late.
Devolu[natic]tion:
Most Australians whom I knew supported Federalism for SL, until when I told them "Hey you wanna divide an island in the size of Tasmania into so many states, ha?" Most critical reason why federalism does not apply to SL is the size of it. Very little countries there exist, whose states can be run across in a day.
Moreover it is impractical as it naturally leads up to the separation as many above mentioned forces work day and night to achieve it. Anything we mark by means of federal or any other race-based twin sister of it, will be simply another step for international recognition for eelam. And any power we grant such, is a road open to get there.
It is very clear that SL needs devolution. But most hurting needs are regarding administration and development. Not about defence and policy making. Devolution should focus these requirements. Smaller regions should be given more powers in administrating and developing their regions. Center should standardize all the policy and other critical issues including defence and should hold it under their control. Regions should be smaller than current ethnic barriers and should not have any ethnic basis.
Sadly, the lunatics who call themselves the professional devolutionists fail to understand this. In reality most such are rusted socialists who still read "Das Capital" to find best socialist ways of making love. We need to move out from here and get many "other"politicians into act. If we agree for Devolution we need to agree it all together and work hard to make it a healthy and safe plan.
Human migration and the millennium to come:
Sri Lanka is the dead end of a great human migration. Northern and Southern parts of India provided a flux of people who found nothing but great Indian ocean beyond this island. In recent millennium, Tamilnadu's population eruption has sent a lava flow of humans through to the island. It will keep on doing so within whatever legal and illegal frameworks of the day.
This means that eventually one day SL will be tamil dominant, theoretically. Today's world order saves us thanks to countries and visa barriers, hence making illegal immigration the only way. But there is no assurance that such structures will remain in tact for ever. In the millennial view this risk exists at large.
It leaves the Sri Lankans with a two way approach. Firstly be very open hearted. They should support any kinda integration of anyone into their fold. They should not base themselves on race, and the open and extended hands should embrace anyone who comes under their flag. Secondly they should be ruthless to anyone who's trying to pull down the flag.
And on this regards we need to learn everything from Israel.
In a summary; we need to address the following topics in this dawning 2010.
- Tamil racist politics: how to dismantle them
- Stop playing into their demands due to cheap political gain
- Banning Separatism
- Filling the northern political vaccum
- Increasing security of North and East. Establishing permanent camps and increasing numbers.
- Have an anticipative plan on combating terrorism at its birth.
- Taking care of IDPs, and providing them sustainable development
- Spying and monitoring the same
- Multi Ethnic Recolonization
- Combating illegal immigration and coast guard
As the new year brings a new president, these topics should be more significant when you decide on your candidate for voting. Whoever wins, these haunting questions will be nagging soon to be addressed. Failing which they'll take the nation back to 70s and 80s, making next decade bloodier than 90s.
And on the day when category five strikes, everyone will forget playing with the little butterflies flapping wings in their back yard.
Monday, December 14, 2009
Sarath's Guide of Hero to Zero in 21 Days - General commits political suicide
Two days ago, I had facts to write about. It wasn't a wave as big as 2004 Boxing Day Clean Sweep, yet I met few people, notably non-UNPers, who were swaying for good reasons or bad reasons. General did almost nothing but Mahinda's stray dogs have been scoring for general. Let me note down what I observed, exactly until two days ago.
- People hated many stray dogs such as Mervyn/Hadda attacking general. Some patriorts in MR camp were shaky and kinda moving towards general for sympathy.
- Some lesser aware people were fooled by General's bogus campaign. There was a going rumor that "Executive President can abolish the rank Executive President". This is a blatent lie, but UNP lie machines have done their part. Many were deceived. And that covered the biggest flop in General's manifesto. Right or wrong general had scored.
- General's "something more than 13th" did not hit many minds. Many thought that "General will not betray nation" although he said so. Maybe many people wanted to give him a second chance.
- Defection of a top class political mastermind cum power hungry scum, S B Dissanayake. We all know he's like a compass turning towards power. I believe MR did the biggest mistake. For the short time goals he created the biggest risk for him - a Deva Datta among his ranks. Many ppl said that they don't want S B in ruling party, hence General gaining few votes.
- Scum S B calling General a "man like an animal", for which even I felt so disgusted.
- General's posters have been damaged or pictures are deformed. These kind of arrogant and stupid behavior taking every credit away from Mahinda.
I felt that at least few thousands from Mahinda's camp would have crossed.
And just when it was most critical, SF shot in his own butt and threw shit all over the house. First he made his remarkable comment on GR granting shoot-at-will commands against so called surrendering big Pussycats. Then he tried so synthetically and impractically to cover his nakedness leaving some endless questions in the mouths of many foreign parties.
Today, everything as two days ago, makes no sense. I need to rethink on my post. Few facts that arrived in.
- General did his first major betrayal. No matter what bad treatment he received, he is beyond all freedom to issue such news, had it even been true. There is a code of conduct, or ethical bond not to put the men of his previous command in trouble.
- And then he tried recovering, but simply told us that he, then Commander of Army, happened to believe in rumors about his own junior ranks as stated by some stray journalist [who had no guts to write it in public]. This is an utter mess.
- Imagine Gotabhaya Rajapakse ordered this killing of the leaders, bravo, the way to go. Had we left the trio to get away, today the pussycats will be running under their command, and many 100s of soldiers civilians and pussycat hostages die on every passing day.
- Why should we allow a free passage for some masterminds whom scrificed poor school chrldren as cannon fodder? What assurance do you have that they are not using the white flags to launch a major attack? Why so late for surrender? So wasn't it so great if Gota ordered this, instead of allowing white masters to help pussycats once again?
General just told the whole nation that it was Gota, not him, who held a firm hand against Pussycats, hence winning the war for us. And he lost almost all of his worth in saying so.
And right now, I see a major shake in the patriotic support base of SF. For the first time, most initial supporters are considering their support. Most people who gave him a second chance for "more tahn 13th" are in the mood of deserting him.
It was all lost in one shot. Unless Mahinda's stray dogs score another own goal for General, this will remain the biggest damage by far to his campaign - an almost political suicide. Lots of damage control going, mainly with JVP who has better sense than UNP/Mangala, but little too late. Sunday Leader leads the damage as usual.
It is very non-defence like to discuss the porgress of Presidential capmapign here. But it is all the more defence related when a supposed to be responsible former commander betray his team with true or fake stories like this. As long as Army is taken for political mileage, the matter is defence related, and of the highest interest of national security.
And it is no longer common political mud slinging. What should await the General is a case in court for treason. Whatever you did for nation does not suffice to save you after this level of betrayal.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Bankrupted war crimes and human rights pundits meet King Kekille
In every war conducted so far there had been war crimes. If you go by the standards defined in world bodies and agreements such as Geneva Convention, every war has at least once crossed their allowed limits. If you consider post-WWII era, especially the main wars that west has engaged such as the invasion of Vietnam, Panama, Iraq or Afganistan, the numerous wars of Israel and even the mere military assistance given via UN - there exists no virgin war - as far as crimes are concerned. Yet they were never challenged. Like Dayan Jayathilake once said, the victorious party was never questioned.
However, the debate becomes further heated up when it comes to the war against terror. So far there have been a few number of completed wars against terror. And we noticed that in each of those cases there was no way you can hold into whatever the guidelines set for the wars against two nations. Nobody has conducted any academic analysis into war against terror and redefine the conventions.
Having said all these, the recently completed war against terror in Sri Lanka gives a novel low for those groups who master the topic of war crimes. It has been more than six months since the completion of war, yet they are looking for the smoking gun. Even that given, it is beyond comprehension why most such parties conduct defamation and slandering campaigns, instead of taking appropriate actions, if they really can.
The lowest point of the campaign so far is the call for allegations against Mr Palitha Kohona.
Mr Kohona was the secretary for Ministry of Foreign Affairs and he was not involved in war by any means. Nor did he hold a power to decide anything related to war. But the fact that some people have imagined of a possible case of gunning down a terrorist with a white flag has been made synthetically connected to Mr Kohona.
How can one trust a terrorist carrying a white flag is a debatable question. They have not only used white flags but also used signs of supposed to be neutral institutes such as Red Cross, UN etc. Still, the call against Mr Kohona is a pathetic low, even if you ignore such pragmatic points.
It reads, "There's nothing to suggest Dr Kohona was directly responsible for committing these alleged war crimes, though international law does recognize principles of what's called command responsibility, where if someone had direct command, whether it's legal or political, with respect to the commission of these types of of offenses,"
Dr Kohona was not in a position of command - direct or indirect, formal or de-facto - when it mattered to this kind of decisions. He was said to be approached by someone asking SLDF to obey certain rules. Just as Dr Kohona says, "There was a general query about surrendering and I told them that I was the wrong person, that I had nothing to do with surrendering and asked them to go and deal with the matter in the way it ought to be dealt with."
Goly, they did not have my phone number, otherwise I'd be compelled to give them the same answer and hence conduct a "war crime".
The whole hype on the allegations - rather the craving for allegations - tells us one thing. The parties of vested evil interest on Sri Lanka, have reached their lowest point after bankruptcy. they are slandering in the dark shades of their backyards. Humorous human rights groups have taken up the tactics of the village house wives. If they cannot take actions against this tiny third world island of 20 million people, with absolutely no influence on any nation whatsoever, that means that they are so powerless, and absolutely obsolete today.
Moreover it tells you that perhaps this war in Sri Lanka had no criminal offenses in whatever convention they use to judge them. Nobody who were really involved in this war have been found with evidence for war crimes, so you catch Dr Kohona, since he is an Australian citizen. Just for that matter of citizenship.
Nevertheless they are not alone. Perhaps if you go with folklore, there once was this king Kekille who gave at least one similar verdict.
Monday, December 7, 2009
Emerging Threats Against Sri Lanka
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was founded in eastern Sri Lanka four months ago and has vowed to launch attacks against government and military targets unless its demands for a separate Tamil homeland are met.
...
“This war isn’t over yet,” Commander Kones, head of the PLA’s Eastern District military command, told The Times during a night meeting in a safe house in the east of the country last week.
Daily Mirror: Government aware of PLA presence in the East- Minister
Speaking to Daily Mirror, Minister Rambukwella said that he is aware of the existence of the group and that this sort of situation arises anywhere in the world. He added that since the country was in a reconciliation process after the defeat of the LTTE the government would deal with the issue politically.
Details of the emerging terrorists group called "PLA" and the leader "Kones" are sketchy at the moment. However minute the threat is, we shall never take it light. Minister Rambukwella indicates that the government would be dealing with the threat as a political issue rather than a terrorist issue. In late 70s we miserably failed in dealing with Eelam problem politically and caught unguarded for 33 years. Given the fact that we have an elite military machine second to none in dealing with terrorism and an astute political leadership with grass root level support in the East, it is likely that we can solve this problem before it gets worse. However, napping militarily or politically shall not be considered an option in dealing with this kind of threats even during an election.
Sunday, December 6, 2009
U.S. Report on Sri Lanka Urges New Approach
NEW DELHI — A report on Sri Lanka to be released next week by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee urges a less confrontational approach to that nation, citing strategic American interests in the region.
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But
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It was not a secret that certain US representatives in Sri Lanka, during the final phase of war against LTTE terrorists, threatened the president with bogus war crime charges. If President Mahinda Rajapakse ever submitted to those undiplomatic requests, it is very likely that we are living under terrorist threats even today. With the help of India, China, and Russia, we successfully defeated their further disgraceful attempts in UN that followed comprehensive defeat of LTTE terrorists. As a result of such overt attempts, a US friendly nation was turned in to a nation not very positive about US. It is very important to maintain good relations with a global power like US, for commercial benefits if not for anything else. Therefore, the proposed non-confrontational approach can be beneficial to everybody. However, it will take a long time to erase the ill memories created by such hostile acts in the most crucial hour of the recent history of Sri Lanka.
Sam (ID 10084374428694513082).
DefenceWire.blogspot.com Resurrected Here!
Dear DefenceWire Bloggers,
As you may have noticed, the DefenceWire (DW) blog is inoperative, because the Patriot who was maintaining that blogsite has gone AWOL (Absent With Out Leave), and we have been unable to contact him.
Therefore, several of us long-term bloggers at DefenceWire decided to create a replacement for the DefenceWire blog, called the SriLankaDefenceForum, and to operate it with a TEAM OF ADMINISTRATORS, so that that it would never again become unavailable to the bloggers because the sole administrator goes AWOL, and there is no one available to correct the problem.
The administrative policies operative at DefenceWire will be adopted unaltered here. To wit, the SriLankaDefenceForum will be
1. An unmoderated blog open to all without registration,
2. The administrators, will write and post the lead articles in turn, as newsworthy events occur,
3. The administrators, who have opinions of their own on every concievable subject, will not seek to administratively impose them on others, but will participate as individual bloggers as before,
4. Each comment will be limited in length to 4096 characters, as at DW, to inhibit spamming of the blog.
The administrative team consists, in alphabetical order of the blog handles, of the following five bloggers: Ananda-USA, Konappu Bandara, Moshe Dayan, Sam Perera, and Sujeewa Kokawala.
The SriLankaDefenceForum Blog Administrators email address is SriLankaDefenceForum@gmail.com .
Please contact us if you notice any problems with the blog, or want to suggest improvements.
Thank you all!
Let the Blog Wars begin!