With the results of the 2010 General election published, the governing United People's Freedom alliance (UPFA) has recorded an unprecedented victory in recent election history. When the results of the two annulled electorates are announced, and the national list allocations are completed, the UPFA is expected to get a massive 144-146 seats out of 225.
Mage Mathru Bhumiya Dinewa!
Epic victoryThe UPFA victory eclipses the previous record for the highest number of seats obtained by a winning party (ie, the United National Party's 125 seats in 1989) under the proportional representation (PR) system of 1978. It also debunks the myth that strong governments cannot be formed under the PR system.
The number of seats obtained by the UPFA does not reflect the full grandeur of the victory. They carried 135 of 158 electorates (similar to the 5/6 victory of UNP in 1977). Their winning percentage of 60.4%, and margin of 1.8 million (against the aggregates of all other parties), are unprecedented as well. One might complain that the turnout was comparatively low. However this was to be expected after the presidential election, and compared to other democracies in the world, 55% is by no means a low turnout. Moreover, if one looks at the results carefully, it is apparent at roughly similar numbers of government and opposition supporters stayed home on election day, compared to the Presidential Election on January 26, 2010.
The victorious UPFA
As requested by the president, the people have given the UPFA a strong Electroral Mandate, thereby ensuring 6 more years of stable rule. The leaders of the government have to realize that this is the last election they can market the war victory for votes. Other issues will take center stage in subsequent elections:
1. The economy- The government will hopefully be able to reap in the benefits of the infrastructure developments and economic growth over the next six years. The peace dividend should filter down to the masses, who richly deserve it.
2. Corruption and thuggery- The UPFA voters themselves have voted out some of the corrupt and inefficient ministers of the previous government. However, some errant characters who are locally popular have been elected. The government should rein in these MPs, and project the image of a true people's government. With a strong government, the president has the luxury of appointing a small cabinet. The choosing of suitable and efficient ministers, as well as a capable prime minister, will be very important for the future of the UPFA government.
3. The Eelam struggle- Though the armed struggle was extinguished last year, the diaspora Tamils backed by western powers still plot and scheme to divide the island. Whilst countering these threats externally, the government must strive to eliminate the root cause of the problem through ethnic integration (ie, via strategic re-colonization, increasing contact and empathy between communities, and economic development).
UNP: A toothless opposition.
The UNP hurtled towards it's worst defeat since the PR system was introduced, and is expected to win only 58-60 seats. They won only 9 electorates, reminiscent of their rout at the hands of the SLFP in 1956. If the UNP is to make a comeback, a total makeover is necessary. It is unlikely that Ranil Wickremsinghe could ever lead the UNP to victory at an election. By not electing some of his cronies (Vajira Abeywardane, Sagala Rathnayake), the UNP voters have also sent their leadership message. Moreover, the so called 'Kepuwath Kola' generation of rural UNP-er are dying out (literally) leaving only the Colombo-centric supporters. Unless new leaders such as Sajith Premadasa, or Dayasiri Jayasekara, are given priority and leadership oppotunities, Sri Lanka risks becoming a one party state.
JVP: Saving face
Many of the readers may disagree, but the JVP has to a certain degree saved-face at this election. They are likely to win 7 seats, which is far better than the 1-3 they were initially projected to win. It seems, apart from their own hardcore cadre, about 200,000 Fonseka sympathizers voted for them as well. Thus, they have saved themselves from political irrelevance for another six years. Until such time their trade and student unions are dismantled, the JVP will continue to play a role in Sri Lanka's political landscape.
ITAK/TNA : The last throw of the dice..
Without any LTTE firepower to back them up, the ITAK(TNA)'s seats in the North and East were reduced from 22 to 14. Moreover, they polled less than 50% in the Tamil heartland of Jaffna, and less than 40% in the other districts they contested. In fac,t with 4000 or so more votes, the UPFA could have wrested victory from the ITAK in the Vanni and Batticaloa districts. With the new census to be conducted in 2011, the number of seats allocated to the North is expected to drop by about 4 (Jaffna -3, Vanni- 1), whilst Battticaloa would likely lose 1 seat as well. Therefore, coupled to the moderating influence of ethnic integration in future years, the influence of TNA is likely to be further diluted in subsequent elections. Therefore, they will be hellbent in their effort to preserve their mono-ethnic fiefdom, by agitating for a federal solution. We call upon the government to frustrate their communal and separatist designs at every turn.
Conclusion
The results of this election will greatly influence the destiny of Sri Lanka in the coming years. If the government lives up to it's great potential, the Silent Revolution of 2010 will far outshine the achievements of the 1956 and 1977 electoral revolutions. Let us hope that all goes well for our motherland, and that our children one day will proudly call themselves "Dedahas Dahaye' Daruwo!"
