By Gen. Ashok K Mehta
IndiaTimes.com
August 11, 2011
Not only did the Sri Lankan Army (SLA) comprehensively defeat the LTTE insurgency - the first such victory in the 21 century, but it also returned the country to a high growth rate path of 8%. That's the judgment Central Bank of Ceylon governor Ajith Cabraal made during the international conference last month at Colombo.
He considers the Sri Lankan military very productive, winning the war on the cheap: for $5.5 billion between 2006 and 2009, which is 4% of the GDP. By contrast, the US has spent nearly $1 trillion on its unfinished wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. That government message is not going out loudly enough.
Instead, it has to justify victory and confront western allegations of human rights violations amounting to war crimes. The LTTE knew that killing the economy would result in Sri Lanka becoming a failed state. It chose economic targets in Colombo - the Central Bank, international airport and hotels - launching suicide attacks that also destroyed tourism.
Although the annual economic loss during the war was around 1-2% of the GDP, the economy grew for the most part, at 6% as the insurgency was confined to the North-East. Previous governments did not attempt defeating the LTTE militarily for fear of costs, high political uncertainty, loss of investor confidence and lack of political will. No one knew how India would react but most of all, few believed it was possible to subdue the LTTE.
So when the campaign was launched with hopeful titles like Eastern Awakening and Northern Spring, military commanders pursued a measured strategy of attrition and recapture of territory, certainly not the rout of LTTE. This is akin to India's capture in 1971 of Dacca, which was never envisaged in the original plans, regardless of claims made later.
The SLA deservedly congratulated itself on doing the unthinkable - conquering an invincible LTTE, thanks to its leader Prabhakaran's strategic follies including fighting positional battles instead of employing unconventional tactics, its forte. What surprised Sri Lanka was India's strategic cooperation in the destruction of the LTTE.
Recently one Sri Lankan minister said that Sri Lanka did not think India will allow the war to continue after the fall of Kilinochchi. Western pressures were used to end the war. In 2009, the EU withdrew the GSP plus concession on textiles which resulted in a recurring loss of nearly $200 million and the IMF delayed giving the loan.
What surprised Prabhakaran was a 'transformed' SLA led from the front by unrelenting commanders, backed by resolute political leadership and the adulation of the majority Sinhalese community prepared for any sacrifice to end the LTTE reign of terror.
Mr Cabraal said that President Mahinda Rajapaksa had ordered full financial support for the war, which was reflected in successive defence budgets managed by the President's younger brother, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, a former army officer. He pioneered fast-track weapons acquisition ensuring troops had the wherewithal to fight. Pakistan and China, India's twin adversaries, were the main suppliers of military hardware as India provided only defensive weapons.
Two years after the war, the investment on defence has paid off. The economic indicators are striking. There is a brain gain instead of the usual brain drain. Inflation is down to single figure, unemployment below 5%, fiscal deficit down from 6.8% to 5%, malnutrition down from 35% to 13.5% and poverty down to 7.6% in 2009-10 from 15.2% in 2006-07 - the fastest reduction in the world.
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Thursday, August 11, 2011
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