False and Naïve Expectations Can Ruin Hard Won Peace

Peace has dawned upon Sri Lanka. For the first time in 27 years Traditional New Year celebrations took place in an atmosphere of peace. First peaceful Independence Day, first peaceful Christmas and the first peaceful election were other firsts lately. Will peace last?

Answers depend on the sentiments in formerly war-torn areas. After the wipe out of the LTTE, violence is not a yardstick to measure the level of peace. But the voting pattern is. Has anything changed in the voting pattern of North-East Tamils in 2010? The answer is not much. Even the small change that has taken place cannot be attributed to a lasting and genuine factor. For instance armed paramilitary politico-military groups roam the streets of Jaffna District. Interestingly they only managed to win seats in the Jaffna District! It says a lot about the real reasons for their bettered performance. Displaced civilians cause another complexity. Only some displaced civilians were provided with facilities to vote. In another strange outcome, displaced civilians overwhelmingly voted for the government minister in charge of their welfare who was active in arranging them transport facilities on the election day!

These abnormalities clearly are exceptions than the norm of North-East voting pattern. If people were allowed to vote in an atmosphere of no IDPs and no armed paramilitaries, the result would have been different. In making long term assessments, these exceptions have to be taken out of the picture because IDPs will be soon resettled fully and armed paramilitary groups will eventually be forced to toe the line.

A clear, unbroken voting pattern

When these anomalies are taken out, a clear picture emerges that is the natural voting pattern of Tamils in the North-East ever since 1947. Unlike in other parts of the country, in North and the East, Tamil voters have always predominantly voted for racist political parties. This strange phenomenon is not unique to Tamils in Sri Lanka’s North and the East. It is also clearly visible in Tamil Nadu, India. Almost all other Indian states follow collective political ideologies.

e.g. secular nationalism, communism

However, racism seems to be the dominant political ideology of Tamil Nadu as it is in North and East Sri Lanka. Dravida Munethra Kazakham and All India Anna Dravida Munethra Kazakham are the dominant political parties of Tamil Nadu. Dravida is one big race that is made up of a number of Dravidian races including Tamil. North and East of Sri Lanka, and Tamil Nadu account for over 41 Tamil/Dravida political parties. Political ideology of these parties is Tamil/Dravida racism.

Since 1947, the following parties dominated Tamil politics of Northern and Eastern Sri Lanka in terms of voter numbers; All Ceylon Tamil Congress, Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kadchi, Tamil United Liberation Front and Tamil National Alliance.

Tamil votes at the 2010 General Election in the North and the East

If what the UPFA scored island-wide is a landslide, Tamil racist parties have won a landslide among Tamil voters in the North and East. But unlike the UPFA, Tamil racist ideology always won in the North and the East. Tamil voters’ percentage is assumed to be same as ethnic distribution of the district. Votes for Tamil racist ideologies are votes received by Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kadchi (ITAK), Akila Ilankai Thamil Congress and Thamil Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal.

Trincomalee shows the highest percentage of 84% which is significant because the ITAK leader contested from the Trincomalee district. Jaffna and Vanni show low percentages because EPDP and aligned parties threw their weight around ably supported by their armed cadres. Voters’ turnout in these two election districts was low which helped this outcome.

National Security Implications

Political parties with racist or religious ideologies may they be Tamil, Sinhala or Muslim don’t go well with national security interests. Ethnic harmony and secularism are the best tools for maintaining national security. These parties not only stand in the way of ethnic harmony but openly preach racism and violence. ITAK has a long history of engaging in violence against ethnic Muslims and Sinhalas in the North and the East. Starting from 1949, ITAK carried out a number of apparently peaceful campaigns to win a separate state for Tamils including civil disobedience campaigns. However, due to the very racist nature of these campaigns they turned violent. 1958 riots broke out as a direct result of the highly racist and discriminatory “tar-brush campaign” of the ITAK where Sinhala letters were erased in all public places by applying tar on them which is a direct adaptation of the “tar-brush campaign” carried out by Tamil Nadu communalist politicians earlier against Hindi speaking people.

ITAK has again threatened civil disobedience campaigns unless their demands are granted.

It is wrong to call these “Gandhian ways” of peaceful protest. Unlike the ITAK, Gandhi never made racist demands. This type of action should be handled using force since it can arouse racial violence and is an insult to the good name Gandhi.

Communal political parties demand that security forces are withdrawn from the North East since the war has ended. If done, this can seriously jeopardize national security.

Fourth danger of communalist parties is that they act as secret promoters of separatism even when the LTTE has been wiped out. They, along with sections of the LTTE Diaspora can destabilize Sri Lanka and India. In the remote possibility of a referendum in the North East of Sri Lanka for separation, an overwhelming ‘yes’ vote would mean immense pressure on the island nation to honour their ‘democratic’ right.

However, racist political ideologies cannot be forcibly suppressed. This is especially so when Tamil Nadu, Sri Lanka’s closest neighbour and the global defender of Tamil rights is heavily controlled by communal politics.

How to Face the Danger

The only democratic way to diffuse racism in politics is to ethnically integrate North East so as to make racist politics irrelevant. Success of it is seen from the election results of Trincomalee District. Although more than 80% Tamils voted for a communalist party, it lost thanks to large scale multi-ethnic settlement programs since Independence. Digamadulla is another example. Since the split from Batticaloa District, population diversity of the Digamadulla District has increased.

These proven peace building tactics should now be applied in the Northern Province.

Lousy political solutions without addressing the core issues of racism will create more trouble for the nation. Most suggested solutions will in fact empower racist political parties in a decentralized setting! That would be a total disaster regionally, nationally and internationally. This is the reason why the Northern Provincial Council has not been convened, almost a year after the war ended. A Provincial Council controlled by politicians with a racist ideology will pander into the highly active Tamil Elam campaign abroad.

Tamil Elamists should not be allowed to get peacefully what they couldn’t get in the battlefield. If danger to the nation is so grave that no other means would work, there should be no hesitation to use the military to sufficiently crush the rebellion. However, the smart thing to do is not to use the military at all. That can only be done with a process of mass ethnic integration in formerly war affected areas.

When should it start? Now. That’s because good times won’t last. While the time is right, maximum number of new multiethnic settlements has to be established in the North East.

Experimenting with untested solutions is equal to not having a solution at all. It is the noble duty of all peace loving Sri Lankans, not just patriots and nationalists, to compel the government to give a political solution based on multiethnic settlements in the North. This duty must be discharged for the sake of future generations to live in peaceful, multiethnic communities devoid of all chances of war, separation and racism. Peace loving people should not fall for crocodile tears of racist elements who will oppose multiethnic settlements in North East. Hidden behind these apparently meekly acts are the cruel intentions of racism. Anyone opposing any reasonable form of multiethnic settlements is a supporter of racism and should be treated as such. New laws are needed to punish those who don’t recognise the fundamental right of any Sri Lankan to live in any part of the island nation. And new laws should totally ban separatism and racist political parties that would divorce North East politics from Tamil Nadu politics. Adjusting the number of parliamentary seats based on new population figures is another requirement. Essential powers needed for counter-terrorism and counter-separatism now included in Emergency Regulations should be separately enacted with minimum hindrances to civilian life. Such laws should be operational by default without having to pass it in parliament month to month. Only other provisions of Emergency Regulations should remain needing parliamentary sanction monthly, if required to be implemented.

The Silent Revolution of 2010...

By Diyasena

With the results of the 2010 General election published, the governing United People's Freedom alliance (UPFA) has recorded an unprecedented victory in recent election history. When the results of the two annulled electorates are announced, and the national list allocations are completed, the UPFA is expected to get a massive 144-146 seats out of 225.

Mage Mathru Bhumiya Dinewa!

Epic victory

The UPFA victory eclipses the previous record for the highest number of seats obtained by a winning party (ie, the United National Party's 125 seats in 1989) under the proportional representation (PR) system of 1978. It also debunks the myth that strong governments cannot be formed under the PR system.

The number of seats obtained by the UPFA does not reflect the full grandeur of the victory. They carried 135 of 158 electorates (similar to the 5/6 victory of UNP in 1977). Their winning percentage of 60.4%, and margin of 1.8 million (against the aggregates of all other parties), are unprecedented as well. One might complain that the turnout was comparatively low. However this was to be expected after the presidential election, and compared to other democracies in the world, 55% is by no means a low turnout. Moreover, if one looks at the results carefully, it is apparent at roughly similar numbers of government and opposition supporters stayed home on election day, compared to the Presidential Election on January 26, 2010.

The victorious UPFA

As requested by the president, the people have given the UPFA a strong Electroral Mandate, thereby ensuring 6 more years of stable rule. The leaders of the government have to realize that this is the last election they can market the war victory for votes. Other issues will take center stage in subsequent elections:

1. The economy- The government will hopefully be able to reap in the benefits of the infrastructure developments and economic growth over the next six years. The peace dividend should filter down to the masses, who richly deserve it.

2. Corruption and thuggery- The UPFA voters themselves have voted out some of the corrupt and inefficient ministers of the previous government. However, some errant characters who are locally popular have been elected. The government should rein in these MPs, and project the image of a true people's government. With a strong government, the president has the luxury of appointing a small cabinet. The choosing of suitable and efficient ministers, as well as a capable prime minister, will be very important for the future of the UPFA government.

3. The Eelam struggle- Though the armed struggle was extinguished last year, the diaspora Tamils backed by western powers still plot and scheme to divide the island. Whilst countering these threats externally, the government must strive to eliminate the root cause of the problem through ethnic integration (ie, via strategic re-colonization, increasing contact and empathy between communities, and economic development).

UNP: A toothless opposition.

The UNP hurtled towards it's worst defeat since the PR system was introduced, and is expected to win only 58-60 seats. They won only 9 electorates, reminiscent of their rout at the hands of the SLFP in 1956. If the UNP is to make a comeback, a total makeover is necessary. It is unlikely that Ranil Wickremsinghe could ever lead the UNP to victory at an election. By not electing some of his cronies (Vajira Abeywardane, Sagala Rathnayake), the UNP voters have also sent their leadership message. Moreover, the so called 'Kepuwath Kola' generation of rural UNP-er are dying out (literally) leaving only the Colombo-centric supporters. Unless new leaders such as Sajith Premadasa, or Dayasiri Jayasekara, are given priority and leadership oppotunities, Sri Lanka risks becoming a one party state.

JVP: Saving face

Many of the readers may disagree, but the JVP has to a certain degree saved-face at this election. They are likely to win 7 seats, which is far better than the 1-3 they were initially projected to win. It seems, apart from their own hardcore cadre, about 200,000 Fonseka sympathizers voted for them as well. Thus, they have saved themselves from political irrelevance for another six years. Until such time their trade and student unions are dismantled, the JVP will continue to play a role in Sri Lanka's political landscape.

ITAK/TNA : The last throw of the dice..

Without any LTTE firepower to back them up, the ITAK(TNA)'s seats in the North and East were reduced from 22 to 14. Moreover, they polled less than 50% in the Tamil heartland of Jaffna, and less than 40% in the other districts they contested. In fac,t with 4000 or so more votes, the UPFA could have wrested victory from the ITAK in the Vanni and Batticaloa districts. With the new census to be conducted in 2011, the number of seats allocated to the North is expected to drop by about 4 (Jaffna -3, Vanni- 1), whilst Battticaloa would likely lose 1 seat as well. Therefore, coupled to the moderating influence of ethnic integration in future years, the influence of TNA is likely to be further diluted in subsequent elections. Therefore, they will be hellbent in their effort to preserve their mono-ethnic fiefdom, by agitating for a federal solution. We call upon the government to frustrate their communal and separatist designs at every turn.

Conclusion

The results of this election will greatly influence the destiny of Sri Lanka in the coming years. If the government lives up to it's great potential, the Silent Revolution of 2010 will far outshine the achievements of the 1956 and 1977 electoral revolutions. Let us hope that all goes well for our motherland, and that our children one day will proudly call themselves "Dedahas Dahaye' Daruwo!"