Beyond 2009: The Butterfly Effect of National Security

2009 marks a remarkable point in SL history. It is an year of victory, triumph, and a certainty, with most vulnerabilities we faced as a nation deterred. We ought to live happily ever after, yet 2010 comes with more uncertainties and debate. Election heat is getting to its boiling point, with shameful betrayal and defamation. Forgotten and little spoken is the topic of national security today.

Yet the happenings have not left the topic barren. With lots of butterflies flapping their wings, we do not know when the category five may land upon us. While wishing our community a prosperous and joyful new year for 2010, this is an effort to look at the odds.


TNA Factor:

After the demise of Pussycats as a militia, the spotlight shone upon their political twin TNA, undoubtedly. Presidential Election extended this scenario. Both candidates have played Santa-Claus for TNA votes. And at least some of the official agreements contain segments that seem to threaten national security. Even if they turn out to be usual empty promises of Presidential Election, the General Election to be held immediately after, makes the promises more real. TNA will use their seats for bargaining.

However, TNA is set to prove that they're a synthetic alliance created in front of smoking AK 47 and they may fall apart into pieces.If this happens there will inevitably be lots and lots of active parties in Northern political arena, none gaining a majority of any kind. They'd sell their votes/seats at the best price they get for their variants of the same old demands. It may not be as rosy as it looks. Instead of one big federalist element there will be many little ones, and they may infest both sides during GE.

Nevertheless the diminishing of this biggest racist political movement in SL will be a welcome change. We need to move forward from elements of racism and make room for more generous and broad thinking political movements that represent one SL. Importantly, breaking up of TNA would make room for them to groom, if any.


That fallen Baton:

If such broad thinking non-racist movements fail to capitalize on TNA break up, it may make way for new Tamil militia. If TNA fails to represent Northern people, is there a political capacity in the rest to lead them? UNP is not in a position for any serious political discussion instead of providing political jokes. JVP who hinted as a good national level party, seems loosing whatever they had in the Southern regions as well. This leaves Northern Tamils with only option of SLFP, in the lack/break of TNA.

SLFP provides a hope right now. It already has some people such as Karuna [who may not be most preferred by them, but still a better choice than some unknown SLFP organizer]. I am predicting the possibility of some pussycat leaders appearing in SLFP lists in future. SLFP will provide a good non-racist political alternative for the Northern people, for few years.

But it is not enough. It needs a similar opposition as SLFP is the likely party in power. Lack of that may give opportunity for a new militia. This threat is quite high for next decade or so.

Until we have a certain picture on the Northern vote bases, and the direction of its flow, we need to pre-empt this possibility. It is a time to compare the golden years of late 2000s, in search of answers to what mistakes we did in late 70s and early 80s. How to use our military to diminish a movement in formation - that is the question for the defence establishments.


Pussycat-ospora, anger, revenge and hatred:

Anger and revenge was primarily the backbone of the whole havoc caused in SL by Tamil diaspora. More than Eelam they wanted to give us the biggest return, maybe hurt for the savage 1983, or maybe due to the superiority complex most of them seem to suffer from. And it ended up being a totally lost gamble, a huge waste of time and money of a million plus group of people. More anger has made them wanting to return to the same traits and give us a bigger blow. And they still have financial power to do so.

This is one more reason why a militia can be formed even in the death of the pussycat. If not for any other reason, diaspora cash-cow could be the prime reason for someone to create a fake "rebellion" against us. However, this seems to be an area which current defence/diplomatic establishments are tackling pretty well. We need to intense the acts. We should not rest until last active pussycat is behind bars.

Other side of the Pussycat-ospora:

While one part of them trying to give us the best blood bath possible, the other part is plotting the best political structure to make room for Eelam. The Trans- Notional Government and the corresponding elections are one segment of it. The minority forum held in Switzerland for all minority parties, is another. This alliance is highly supported by the INGOs, and many other foreign elements. Most of war crimes claims, and the defamation of SL are parts of this main plot.

Idea is to create a hostile environment for SL, and leave most minds ready to accept Eelam, should there be the slightest chance for it being declared. Also to push the GOSL to maximum in case there is some kind of negotiation.

Regrettably many local politicians including General Fonseka lately, have fallen into this plot. More dangerous will be if General looses campaign and finds life in Sri Lanka meaningless and flees to west looking for ways to revenge Rajapakses.

This is not an empty threat or a laugh-stock. In 90s when Wardharajah Perumal declared the N/E province as Eelam, [illegally] he lacked any formal acceptance from any part of the world. This was despite his capacity as the Chief Minister with [full] power of 13th amendment [although none gave him self-determination]. It would have given him good acceptance, had the world got prepared for the idea. Today's laid out foundations are for a future Wardharajah.

This is where we need to bring strong legal grounds to combat separatism. After 30years of separatist war SL is still entertaining the thinking, talking and organizing of separation. It can only combat separation by means of anti-terrorism. Separatists to date, foolishly took the same and hence got decimated. Yet we have no weapons to combat the peaceful version of separatism.This is a loophole we need to close soon, or the result will be regretful.

IDP turned Mentally Displaced:

IDPs are being settled. With them the multi million dollar topic [of NGOs] is gone. Yet the settling process looks hasty and a rash plan. Perhaps pushed into it by many such parties.

It is very important to handle them sensibly and delicately. More than the infrastructure and underlying needs, most of these people are mentally displaced, still so.

And that leaves all possibilities open. Most these people suffered in many hands, yet they may take it all from the GOSL. They may find their current lives not so filling and, in the slightest mistake, abandoned. Instead of working for their own future cum country's, they may work for country's destruction and eventually theirs.

In simple words the release was too early and primitive. In other words we need to make sure every plan we have to counter any bad formations among them, since they are very likely.

For racist politicians, for diaspora and INGOs, this bulk of ppl [together with other tamils in those regions] are the work horse. Every evil plot of the prior groups are made real by them. And for that reason they would invest their best to get these ppl lined up for their plans. Slightest mistake will be definitely highlighted in the process.

Govt should provide them all the needs and help them to get on with life and prosper. So far it looks good going. Yet the goals are still a significant distance away.

Not only the caretaking but also they should be monitored and closely spied. There is nothing wrong in spying. Today most western countries listen to Muslim circles day and night. We can do the same with them.


Mono-ethnic Enclaves, and unfair and preventive laws from Integration:

This is a topic discussed by likes of Moshe in many rounds. Needless to add, Multi-ethnic recolonization as our pals coined it, is an essence. Not only that the vast reserves of Wanni needs more people and it should be equally available for all Sri Lankans. Any laws violating that right should be removed, and challenged by means of basic rights.

As Moshe states, this is the best way to end racism. Yet they're late. This should have begun in parallel to IDP resettlement. Still never too late.


Devolu[natic]tion:

Most Australians whom I knew supported Federalism for SL, until when I told them "Hey you wanna divide an island in the size of Tasmania into so many states, ha?" Most critical reason why federalism does not apply to SL is the size of it. Very little countries there exist, whose states can be run across in a day.

Moreover it is impractical as it naturally leads up to the separation as many above mentioned forces work day and night to achieve it. Anything we mark by means of federal or any other race-based twin sister of it, will be simply another step for international recognition for eelam. And any power we grant such, is a road open to get there.

It is very clear that SL needs devolution. But most hurting needs are regarding administration and development. Not about defence and policy making. Devolution should focus these requirements. Smaller regions should be given more powers in administrating and developing their regions. Center should standardize all the policy and other critical issues including defence and should hold it under their control. Regions should be smaller than current ethnic barriers and should not have any ethnic basis.

Sadly, the lunatics who call themselves the professional devolutionists fail to understand this. In reality most such are rusted socialists who still read "Das Capital" to find best socialist ways of making love. We need to move out from here and get many "other"politicians into act. If we agree for Devolution we need to agree it all together and work hard to make it a healthy and safe plan.


Human migration and the millennium to come:

Sri Lanka is the dead end of a great human migration. Northern and Southern parts of India provided a flux of people who found nothing but great Indian ocean beyond this island. In recent millennium, Tamilnadu's population eruption has sent a lava flow of humans through to the island. It will keep on doing so within whatever legal and illegal frameworks of the day.

This means that eventually one day SL will be tamil dominant, theoretically. Today's world order saves us thanks to countries and visa barriers, hence making illegal immigration the only way. But there is no assurance that such structures will remain in tact for ever. In the millennial view this risk exists at large.

It leaves the Sri Lankans with a two way approach. Firstly be very open hearted. They should support any kinda integration of anyone into their fold. They should not base themselves on race, and the open and extended hands should embrace anyone who comes under their flag. Secondly they should be ruthless to anyone who's trying to pull down the flag.

And on this regards we need to learn everything from Israel.



In a summary; we need to address the following topics in this dawning 2010.

- Tamil racist politics: how to dismantle them
- Stop playing into their demands due to cheap political gain
- Banning Separatism
- Filling the northern political vaccum
- Increasing security of North and East. Establishing permanent camps and increasing numbers.
- Have an anticipative plan on combating terrorism at its birth.
- Taking care of IDPs, and providing them sustainable development
- Spying and monitoring the same
- Multi Ethnic Recolonization
- Combating illegal immigration and coast guard

As the new year brings a new president, these topics should be more significant when you decide on your candidate for voting. Whoever wins, these haunting questions will be nagging soon to be addressed. Failing which they'll take the nation back to 70s and 80s, making next decade bloodier than 90s.

And on the day when category five strikes, everyone will forget playing with the little butterflies flapping wings in their back yard.